On July 28, 2026, the main contract of COMEX gold futures edged up 0.3% to $2380.2/oz; silver futures performed stronger, rising 1.2% to $31.52/oz. Against a weaker dollar index, rising global geopolitical uncertainty, and expanding industrial demand, the precious metals market showed structural divergence, with silver gaining extra support from robust industrial demand in photovoltaic and other sectors.

Weak economic data boosted gold rebound

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that durable goods orders fell 1.8% month-on-month in June, far below the market expectation of a 0.5% increase; core capital goods orders (excluding defense and aircraft) also declined 0.6%, indicating slowing corporate investment activity. After the data release, the dollar index fell from 104.3 to 103.9, and the 10-year Treasury yield also declined, providing momentum for gold's rebound. Although several Fed officials recently made hawkish remarks, market concerns about economic slowdown have temporarily outweighed expectations of monetary policy tightening.

Silver industrial demand continues to expand

Silver's gain on the day was significantly higher than gold, with the gold-to-silver ratio falling from 75.5 to 75.2. The global energy transition is driving a new wave of silver demand. According to industry data, global photovoltaic silver paste usage in Q2 2026 increased 18% year-on-year, hitting a quarterly record; China's photovoltaic installed capacity grew over 30%, while India and the U.S. markets also maintained double-digit growth. In addition, silver usage in 5G communications and electric vehicle electronic components is steadily rising. Silver's industrial demand share has exceeded 60%, forming a solid floor for silver prices.

Central bank gold purchases and ETF fund flows

The latest monthly report from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks net purchased 483 tons of gold in H1 2026, up 12% year-on-year, with Poland, India, and China as major buyers. In the gold ETF market, as of July 25, holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 9.6 tons from the previous month to 1,162 tons, showing accelerating fund inflows. Allocation demand from central banks and institutional investors provides medium- to long-term support for gold prices.

Technical analysis and short-term outlook

From a technical perspective, COMEX gold futures rebounded after finding strong support near $2,350/oz, with short-term resistance at the $2,400 round number. Silver futures continue in an upward channel with bullish moving averages and an RSI in a healthy range. Positioning data shows COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions increased for three consecutive weeks, indicating rising bullish sentiment among speculative funds. However, caution is needed regarding market prudence ahead of the Fed rate decision at month-end and potential volatility from key data such as the final U.S. Q2 GDP.

Key focus ahead

In the coming week, investors should focus on: first, the Fed's July rate decision; the market expects rates to remain unchanged, but the dot plot and policy statement wording will affect pricing for a September rate hike; second, the revised U.S. Q2 GDP; if data shows stronger-than-expected economic resilience, it may cap gold's upside; third, China's July official manufacturing PMI, as an economic indicator for the world's largest silver consumer, will directly influence silver prices. Overall, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven sentiment, silver is expected to continue outperforming gold, while gold maintains a volatile-to-strong pattern.

Operation suggestions

  • Short-term investors can focus on silver support near $31/oz, take light long positions, with stop loss at $30.5.
  • Medium- to long-term allocators can buy gold and silver on dips, and increase silver allocation when the gold-to-silver ratio falls below 75.
  • Physical investors can consider buying Panda gold coins or silver bars in batches to hedge against potential inflation and currency depreciation risks.

Ruihe Precious Metals will continue to track market dynamics and provide timely and professional real-time gold and silver price interpretation and investment reference.