As of 16:00 Beijing Time on July 29, 2026, international precious metals markets continued recent trends: spot gold consolidated around $2405/oz, with a daily high of $2412 and low of $2398; spot silver broke the $32 mark to $32.15/oz, up 1.2% on the day, hitting a new high since April. COMEX gold futures main contract stood at $2412.8, silver futures at $32.32. In domestic prices, Shanghai Gold Exchange AU99.99 was at 556.8 CNY/g, silver Ag(T+D) at 7850 CNY/kg. Market sentiment is clearly divided: gold is pressured by a stronger dollar and Fed rate hike expectations but supported by Middle East tensions; silver gains strong buying due to surging industrial demand from solar and new energy vehicles.

Gold wavers at $2400: Dollar vs. safe-haven sentiment

Recently, gold has been battling around the $2400 level, driven by two opposing forces. On one hand, Fed officials have been delivering hawkish remarks, hinting at resuming rate hikes if inflation rebounds, pushing the dollar index back above 104.5 and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.35%, damping gold's appeal. On the other hand, ongoing Middle East tensions: Iran-Israel conflict in Syria escalates, plus Russia-Ukraine talks stall, funneling funds into gold ETFs—the world's largest, SPDR Gold Trust, saw holdings rise 2.3 tons to 856.7 tons this week, indicating steady long-term demand.

Technically, gold has been consolidating in the 2390-2420 range for over a week, short-term moving averages converging, MACD near zero, suggesting an imminent breakout. If it breaks above 2420 resistance, it may retest the previous high of 2450; if it falls below 2390, it could test support at 2350. Tonight, the US will release June PCE data; if it exceeds expectations, it could catalyze a gold breakout.

Silver breaks $32: Industrial demand as key driver

Silver has outperformed gold, breaking and holding above $32. The gold-silver ratio has fallen from 78.5 at the start of the month to 74.7 now, indicating silver is catching up. Industrial demand is the core driver of this rally:

  • Solar industry: Global PV installations grew 35% YoY in H1 2026, with China adding 132GW, boosting silver paste demand. Mono PERC cells consume about 15mg/W of silver, HJT even higher. Annual silver consumption in solar is expected to exceed 120 million ounces.
  • New energy vehicles: Global EV sales exceeded 6 million units in H1, with about 25-50g of silver per vehicle (for electronics, connectors), driving industrial demand growth.
  • Electronics & 5G: Shipments of AI servers and smartphones are recovering, boosting demand for silver as a thermal and conductive material.

Supply is also tight: the world's top two silver producers, Mexico and Peru, saw H1 output fall 3% YoY due to declining ore grades and strikes. The Silver Institute expects the 2026 supply deficit to widen to 45 million ounces.

Institutional views: Divergence likely to continue; watch Fed decision

Goldman Sachs maintained an "overweight" rating on gold in its latest report, with a target of $2500, citing central bank buying (net purchases of 483 tons globally in H1) and de-dollarization trends as support. Bank of America raised its silver target to $35, expecting industrial demand growth to drive silver outperformance.

In the short term, investors should focus on: the Fed rate decision on July 31, early August US non-farm payrolls, and the evolving Middle East situation. If the Fed signals a rate cut, gold and silver may rally together; if it stays hawkish, gold may face pressure, but silver's industrial nature will limit its downside.

Spot quotes and trading suggestions

As of press time, major precious metal quotes are as follows:

  • Spot gold: $2405.3/oz (daily +0.15%)
  • Spot silver: $32.15/oz (daily +1.20%)
  • COMEX gold futures: $2412.8/oz
  • COMEX silver futures: $32.32/oz
  • Domestic gold (AU99.99): 556.8 CNY/g
  • Silver T+D: 7850 CNY/kg

For trading, short-term investors may consider going long on gold near $2390, targeting $2420; silver near $31.8, targeting $32.5. Medium-to-long-term investors continue holding long gold and silver positions, watch for the gold-silver ratio to fall below 70 for arbitrage. These suggestions are for reference only. Investment involves risk, be cautious.